World Table Tennis Ranking (May 2019)

World Table Tennis Ranking (May 2019)

Here is the list of top males and top females table tennis players in the world using ERT table tennis ranking for this month. It’s is updated with the latest match results in the official ITTF competitions. However, you should notice that there are 2 Table Tennis Ranking Systems: ITTF Ranking System, and ERT Ranking System. Why the current ITTF World Ranking system is dangerous for the sport and the players? And why we need another “More Accurate” and “Fairer” System? Read below.


Purpose of the rating system

The rating system is a method for calculating the relative skill levels of players in competitor-versus-competitor games such as sports, chess, table tennis, tennis, baskets, computer games, personnel management, and more.

So, “Rating = Skill Level”

How to measure “skills” in table tennis

According to the “Rating Central System” of Dr. David J. Marcus, Ph.D., the skills are considered as “playing strength”.

The higher ranked player will have a higher chance to win the competition.

The rating system should present the real playing strength of each player
The rating system should present the real playing strength of each player

So by using these typical laws of the rating system: a Better player has a higher chance to win (from Rating Central).

The upset can also be determined. The better ranking system will predict correctly the probability of the upset.

So the laws are:

“There is a 95% probability that the player’s playing strength is between the mean minus twice the standard deviation and the mean plus twice the standard deviation.”

“The probability that a match will be upset is determined solely by the difference in playing strengths of the two players. The larger the difference in the playing strengths, the more likely it is that the stronger player will win.

When you have higher ranking point, you should have higher probability of winning
When you have a higher ranking point, you should have a higher probability of winning

You can clearly see in the playing strength rating system: Upset and the probability of winning are related.

“The purpose of rating system is to seed the better player (higher skilled player)”

So in table tennis, the rating system helps you to determine who will have a higher chance to win. The best player has the highest ranking.

The real world ranking

Why we need another table tennis ranking system? Why don’t you just use the ITTF ranking system?

Because the current ITTF World Ranking has many flaws. It’s not correct!

Really? Yes, read below to understand what are the problems with the current world ranking system. I’ve summarized the list of the best table tennis players of all time.

And I also made an amazing animation for the top 10 Male and Female players actually! You should look, and will understand quickly! Fan Zhendong, Ma Long, Xu Xin, Harimoto Tomokazu, Timo Boll are also one of the best players, but their ranking goes up and down with the new ITTF system. So I decided to make my own rating program.

Several working hours with hundreds of lines of code.

 

 

Enjoy this! The program is coded with hundreds of line of codes. And read below!


ITTF rating system: New Problems

Basic principles of the New Ranking System (Taken directly from ITTF.com):

  • The new ranking is based on the final positions reached at the tournaments only (regardless of the relative strength of the opponent player).
  • Only bonus points are awarded (no rating points are given), which are valid for 12 months, except the World Championships.
  • NO loss of points in case of losing a match.

This new rating system is totally ridiculous!

The new world ranking data of ITTF only consider the recent results, and with the wrong multiplying weightings factor. The new ITTF Table Tennis ranking introduces many problems:

  • Many real top players will drop out of the top 100 best table tennis players. For example, many top players dropped out of the current Men Ranking (like Zhang Jike, Jun Mizutani, etc).
  • Some weaker players now jump into the top ranking due to the recent activities. For example, with the New World Ranking System makes Kanak Jha (USA Young Table Tennis Player) into Top 100.
  • This shows who’s the most active on the pro tour instead of who’s best. The official ITTF ranking system will force players to play more, pay more, but less quality. The seeding is a mess. The best player will be ranked lower.
current ITTF world ranking 01 2018
current ITTF world ranking 01 2018

Look at this recent official table tennis Men World Ranking.

  • Ovtcharov is ranked number 1, with 16 000 points. Which is 66% higher than Fang Bo (only 9000 points). Based on the Distribution Laws, Ovtcharov will have about 85% probability to win Fang Bo. Which is false! Ask Ovtcharov himself!
  • “How do you feel the confidence to win Fang Bo”? Of course, it’s not 85% to win!
  • Ma Long has only 13000 points and ranked 7. So his winning probability to Ovtcharov, Fan Zhendong is only about 15%. Ridiculous! The rating system of ITTF is false!
  • Fang Bo is ranked only 21, but look at the real results! He can easily win many higher ranked players. He has won, without any loss to many higher ranked players like Assar Omar (ranked 16), Quadri, Yuya, Hugo, Simon, Kenta.

Why it is dangerous

Why this ranking system is dangerous. Because, for the next event like the Olympics, or World Championships, the top players are seedings. But the seed won’t reflect the “real best players”. Many players will try to participate in many tournaments to get the “fake ranking”. There is the mess in the seedings. And it’s not fun at all. Top players need to be super-active or they are kicked out of the ranking.

With the new system: Best players is ranked very low (Timo Boll)
With the new system: Best players are ranked very low (Timo Boll)

It is no longer the World Ranking

So ITTF table tennis ranking is no longer reflect the true world ranking. What does the ITTF world ranking stand for? What should you consider the official ITTF ranking right now? The so-called ITTF World Ranking is not the real World Ranking.

good, average or poor performance - all depends on your rating points
good, average or poor performance – all depends on your rating points

For me, ITTF ranking right now is just the ranking of the most active players in Pro Tours.

You should understand the Official ITTF ranking as:

“ITTF Ranking = The ranking for the most active player recently

It’s NOT the ranking of the top table tennis players in the world.

Failure-proof?

Yes, just take this example. Ma Long is currently considered as the strongest player right now. Here is the video that explains that Ma Long is the strongest player right now, despite that his ITTF World ranking is only number 9.

I just want to see “who is the best table tennis player in the World right now”. That’s the main motivation that I build my own system.

I don’t trust the ITTF World ranking system anymore.

 

 

Fail to predict the strongest player

The current ITTF just emphasizes Quantity over quality, when it should be the other way around. The current system simply rewards playing as many tournaments as you can.

Recently Ma Long, the best table tennis player right now, who is currently ranked only 11th on the ITTF World Ranking, has won the WTTC 2019.

Liu Guoliang confirmed that Ma Long is the best table tennis player right now
Liu Guoliang confirmed that Ma Long is the best table tennis player right now

This is the BIGGEST upset in table tennis. The guy that is ranked only as number 11th on the World Ranking won three consecutive men’s singles titles World Table Tennis Championships.

In this WTTC, no one can win Ma Long more than 2 sets. He is the real captain of the China Team. The most trusted player in history right now!

Ma Long won the men’s singles World Champion 2019 and thus joined the legendary group of Hungary’s Victor Barna and Chinese compatriot, Zhuang Zedong, who likewise won three in a row (2019, 2017, 2015)
Ma Long won the men’s singles World Champion 2019 and thus joined the legendary group of Hungary’s Victor Barna and Chinese compatriot, Zhuang Zedong, who likewise won three in a row (2019, 2017, 2015)

1st round VS Aleksandar Karakasevic 4-0
2nd round VS Kanak Jha 4-1
3rd round VS Vladimir SAMSONOV 4-1
4th round VS Hugo CALDERANO 4-1
quarterfinals VS LIN Gaoyuan 4-0
semifinal VS LIANG Jingkun 4-1
final VS Mattias Falck 4-1

This is the big proof for the failure of the current World Ranking. It’s dangerous to the sport because it fails to rank the best players in table tennis. It fails to predict the real strong players, and it’s not fair.

Wrong distribution model

Here are the visualization charts of the ITTF top men table tennis ranking. You can clearly see the gap between the “top Chinese players” versus the rest of the World.

Men's World Table Tennis Ranking Distribution
Men’s World Table Tennis Ranking Distribution

 

However, this official ranking is not accurate. It does not reflect the true “level skills” of the top players in the world. The more “exact” world ranking is presented below – EmRatThich Table Tennis World Ranking.

The distribution of the top 20 women table tennis ranking is interesting.

You can clearly see that the “gap” is much closer compared to the men’s ranking. Especially between the top Chinese female, and the Japanese female players.

Women's World Table Tennis Ranking Distribution
Women’s World Table Tennis Ranking Distribution

 

Note: By observing the ranking for both Mens and Womens, there is something wrong!

The points gained by the WR #1 is much higher than the rest. WR #1 has too many points compared to the 2nd, and the 3rd position. It’s due to the  “unbalanced” points awards of the current ITTF ranking system. Read below to understand this, and could we do better?


ERT Table Tennis Ranking – Explication

0. The Motivation

Because you can no longer use the official ITTF rating system to evaluate who is the best table tennis player. I decided to make my own ranking system. This is the main reason why I need to spend the time to make my own ranking

I searched on the Internet and found that the most accurate “Rating System” which has been developed by David J. Marcus, Ph.D., and Sean P. O’Neill (Rating Centrals). Unfortunately, the author didn’t update the latest results due to some difficulties.

Rating Central Ranking - Latest Result only for June 2017
Rating Central Ranking – Latest Result only for June 2017

So I decided to make my own ranking system with the latest data from ITTF.

There are many advantages:

1. The self-correcting rating system

ERT ranking uses the self-correcting rating system, based on the ELO rating system. The ELO rating system is widely used in the world, not only for chess players but also for many sports competition. The current ITTF rating use “NO loss of points in case of losing a match” which is completely wrong! So the points will go up constantly during the time, and it’s called “rating inflation”.

Arpad Elo
Arpad Elo

The main advantage of the ELO system is:

  • The high-rated player is expected to score more win
  • The rating system is self-correcting
  • The rating system must reflect their true playing strength
elo rating principle
elo rating principle

No losing-point is a very bad idea. Because with this, the ITTF rating system is not the “self-correcting” system. You just play as many tournaments as possible. No matter your skills, your winning percentage, just play and win points. Even if you lose all of your matches to the lower ranked players, don’t worry! Just abuse and play!

Meanwhile, if you are the best players! If you don’t play enough. You are out of the game.

With the ITTF system, it’s impossible to compare the rating between the current players and the player in history. It’s a very bad design. While in every rating system in another sport, they try to fight and balance the “Ratings inflation and deflation”.

The real problem of rating inflation is [source wiki]

“For example, if there is inflation, a modern rating of 2500 means less than a historical rating of 2500, while the reverse is true if there is deflation. Using ratings to compare players between different eras is made more difficult when inflation or deflation are present.”

old ITTF rating system
The good old day of ITTF rating system which is rather precise

The old ITTF rating system is better. The points reflect the true player skills.

ZoomTT.com has published an article to compare the old and the new ITTF ranking system. Obviously, the new ITTF rating system failed to predict the results. 66% vs 75%.

Prediction between Old and New ITTF rating system
Prediction between Old and New ITTF rating system

2. Distribution model

ITTF Rating system didn’t use the correct distribution model. That’s why in the current ranking, Ovtcharov has a very high point due to his recent activities, meanwhile, the same level players have such a lower point. While ERT Ranking system uses a much better and more accurate distribution model.

Many other rating systems used the distribution model to distribute the reward points. My rating system used the “logistic distribution” which is considered the most accurate model.

Logic Distribution Model is better
Logic Distribution Model is better

Logistic distribution model, which provide a better fit for the actual results achieved, especially for lower ranked players.

Top 100 Rating Distribution from OLD ITTF Rating
Top 100 Rating Distribution from OLD ITTF Rating

This is the rating distribution of the top 100 Men table tennis player in the world. (Rating from the OLD ITTF rating system November 2017). The rating is from 2200 (Omar Assar) to 3300 (Ma Long). The X-axis is Ranking position from 1 to 100. The Y-axis is the correspondent rating points.

 logistic distribution calculated by EmRatThich
logistic distribution calculated by EmRatThich

This is an example of the Logistic Distribution which reflects better the world ranking system. The adjusted parameter can be used to fit the real ranking system.

ranking distribution in Chess
ranking distribution in Chess

This is the ranking distribution for the Chess player. You can observe the same tendance. Which shows that my ranking system uses a better distribution than the new ITTF rating system.

 

logistic distribution in ELO
logistic distribution is also used in ELO Ranking system

3. Self-adjusted model

Attribute the correct rating points to the player requires a lot of work. It’s not as simple to “accumulate the recent points” like in the ITTF model.

I tend to build the system which can self-adjust to fit the player performance. My system is designed to correctly reflect the players “playing skills” and “performance”.

I’ve implemented the adjusted distribution method to evaluate the performance ratings.

5 domains of Performance Ratings of a player, or personal managements
5 domains of Performance Ratings of a player, or personnel management

This kind of distribution model is very effective, which is used in Personnel Management in the big company.

4. Different weighting factors

Why we need the Weighting factors for the tournament?

To attribute correctly the rating points, you need to consider several weighting factors. The first one is the “Tournament Factor”.

Just because winning a match in the Olympics is much more important than winning a match in the local, or the Open tournament.

Remember: To become a grand slam in table tennis, you need to win “Grand Slam” = Olympic Games + World Cup + World Championships for Table Tennis Tournament!

Weighting factors for the tournament have been used widely, like in ATP (Tennis World Ranking) and other sports. It’s called as “Point Distribution for Event”

Point Distribution for ATP (Tennis) More reward for more important event
Point Distribution for ATP (Tennis) More reward for the more important event

So here, I divide the tournament into several tiers: (here is the code, which will be updated constantly)

Olympics Games versus another Tournament
Olympics Games versus another Tournament

Tier 1: The most important tournament for a table tennis career

  • Olympic Games: The most important tournament in the history
  • World Table Tennis Championships
  • Men’s World Cup

Tier 2: The elite prestigious tournaments,

  • ITTF World Tour (including Grand Finals)
  • Challenge Series
  • ITTF World Junior Circuit (Junior & Cadet events including WJC Final)
  • ITTF World Cadet Challenge
  • Asian Cup, Asian Championship, European Championship

Tier 3: Regional and Open Competition, less difficult level

  • Regional Events
  • Multi-Sport Competitions
  • Challenge Series
  • ITTF Show-case events
  • Continental Cups
  • Africa Cup, Panam Cup, Oceania Cup

The top players will play his best at the most important event. So the more important event, the score reflects better the true level skills.

Ma Long won’t lose to any foreigner at the Olympics Game. But he can lose the same player in the Open Tournament.

5. Lucky and True Skill in table tennis

The second weighting factors should be considered is the “score factors”. EmRatThich World Table Tennis Ranking is currently the only one which considers the “luckiness” and the “skill factors” into the rating systems.

ITTF current rating system only considers the match results, for example, player A win so he gets the points. For ITTF, player A won player B 4-0 or 4-1 or 4-3, all are the same. ITTF only counts the “match results”.

Remember: Winning 4-0 and 4-3 is not the same!

But for me, winning 4-0 and winning 4-3 is totally different. By winning 4-0, you dominate the game, and your skill factors increase. If you win 4-3, the “lucky factor” will play an important role in the match results.

So I have implemented the “Lucky factor” into my rating system:

score is not the same
Match Score is not the same

Note that: This true-score-factor will be updated to reflect the real world ranking system. This is my first attempt, and it works very well.


ERT Table Tennis Ranking

If you want to search for the latest world table tennis ranking for this month, here you are.

Input data

So what’s is the result? Who is the top table tennis players in the world?

By analyzing:

  • 43 735 table tennis matches played (in official ITTF events)
  • nearly 100 table tennis international tournaments during the year.
43 thousands table tennis matches played in ITTF tournaments
43 thousand table tennis matches played in ITTF tournaments
Nearly 100 tournaments organized by ITTF in 2017
Nearly 100 tournaments organized by ITTF each year

And by applying and fitting the most accurate distribution model

ELO distribution
ELO distribution

Men’s World Table Tennis Ranking

Here are the latest Top 50 Rankings Mens in table tennis. Ma Long is currently on top of the World.

 

#Player
1MA Long
2FAN Zhendong
3XU Xin
4LIN Gaoyuan
5LIANG Jingkun
6HARIMOTO Tomokazu
7BOLL Timo
8FALCK Mattias
9CALDERANO Hugo
10NIWA Koki
11OVTCHAROV Dimitrij
12JEONG Sangeun
13GAUZY Simon
14LEE Sangsu
15PITCHFORD Liam
16FREITAS Marcos
17JEOUNG Youngsik
18SAMSONOV Vladimir
19MIZUTANI Jun
20FRANZISKA Patrick
21JANG Woojin
22LIM Jonghoon
23CHUANG Chih-Yuan
24GROTH Jonathan
25KARLSSON Kristian
26WONG Chun Ting
27AN Jaehyun
28YOSHIMURA Maharu
29OSHIMA Yuya
30MATSUDAIRA Kenta
31ACHANTA Sharath Kamal
32APOLONIA Tiago
33GERASSIMENKO Kirill
34CHEN Chien-An
35GNANASEKARAN Sathiyan
36UEDA Jin
37HABESOHN Daniel
38LEBESSON Emmanuel
39MORIZONO Masataka
40FILUS Ruwen
41KOU Lei
42ARUNA Quadri
43ZHOU Yu
44DUDA Benedikt
45LIAO Cheng-Ting
46IONESCU Ovidiu
47STEGER Bastian
48GIONIS Panagiotis
49TSUBOI Gustavo
50PERSSON Jon

 

Men's Singles Awards at the Liebherr 2019 ITTF World Table Tennis Championships on April 28, 2019 in Budapest, Hungary. (Photo by Remy Gros ITTF)
Men’s Singles Awards at the Liebherr 2019 ITTF World Table Tennis Championships on April 28, 2019, in Budapest, Hungary. (Photo by Remy Gros ITTF)

 

The list of the top 50 men senior players above is considered more accurate than the ITTF the world ranking system.

I’ve also explained what has changed, and why ITTF wants to imply the new ranking system. Here is the video:

Women’s World Table Tennis Ranking

Here are the top 50 top Women table tennis players in the world. Ding Ning is ranked #WR1.

 

PositionPlayer
1DING Ning
2LIU Shiwen
3CHEN Meng
4WANG Manyu
5ISHIKAWA Kasumi
6ZHU Yuling
7ITO Mima
8CHENG I-Ching
9HIRANO Miu
10CHEN Xingtong
11FENG Tianwei
12SUH Hyowon
13SATO Hitomi
14DOO Hoi Kem
15POLCANOVA Sofia
16JEON Jihee
17SHIBATA Saki
18GU Yuting
19SZOCS Bernadette
20KATO Miyu
21LI Jie
22SAMARA Elizabeta
23ZHANG Mo
24LI Qian
25CHEN Szu-Yu
26EKHOLM Matilda
27LEE Ho Ching
28YANG Haeun
29HASHIMOTO Honoka
30HAYATA Hina
31KIM Song I
32SAWETTABUT Suthasini
33POTA Georgina
34HAN Ying ^
35SUN Yingsha
36YU Fu
37NAGASAKI Miyu
38SOO Wai Yam Minnie
39EERLAND Britt
40YU Mengyu
41ANDO Minami
42DIAZ Adriana
43MESHREF Dina
44SOLJA Petrissa
45MIKHAILOVA Polina
46NI Xia Lian
47LIU Jia
48ZENG Jian
49MITTELHAM Nina
50WU Yue

 

Ding Ning - one of the best female table tennis player of all time
Ding Ning – one of the best female table tennis player of all time

 

To find the name of the player, you can press “Ctrl – F” to quickly search and jump to her ranking position. The list above (top 50 Female Seniors players in table tennis) reflects the true skill level in table tennis. It’s calculated based on the latest match results this month.


ITTF ranking vs ERT Ranking

So which ranking system should you use? It’s up to you to use the current ITTF World Ranking table tennis or my calculated ranking system.

For me, ERT Ranking system is more accurate than the ITTF Ranking system. With the Rating Centre System, ERT ranking is one of the most accurate world ranking systems.

Here is an example of the top 20 table tennis players in 2018, rating calculated by EmRatThich. You can compare with the ITTF list, and give me your opinion.

What do you think about my efforts? Please comment below.

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Dr. Liu
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Dr. Liu

Thumb up! This ranking is way better than ITTF’s.

Terry
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Terry

I agrees with you ! Good job ! I don’t think ITTF is correct , I started to search ‘ Is ITTF’s Ranking is wrong ? ‘ , and find your website , and I think you are correct . I hope ITTF will take a look of your ranking . Maybe you can leave a reply on the website.of ITTF or email them .

John Richards
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John Richards

Obviously, your system is way more accurate than the current ITTF rating system. ITTF is like a kindergarten system for rewards and gold stars with built in favoritism. Lots of hidden, unspoken deals are at work and it can never be an accurate ranking/rating system. The biggest inaccuracy, one that will mess up an honest system for a long time to come , is that the world’s majority of serious table tennis players are blocked from participation in the falsely-named “international” table tennis federation. Mostly, this is stopping the Chinese people. Yes we know Table Tennis was invented in the… Read more »

Kieron Gill
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Kieron Gill

GREAT work, I’m INCREDIBLY impressed!

Any chance of a mid-year update? Maybe after the upcoming Korean and Australian opens?

THANKS!!

michel
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michel

votre systeme est plus precis que celui ittf. merci pour votre temps.

michel
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michel

thank you for your updated world ranking in table tennis. its more accurate than ittf ranking

Arnaud
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Arnaud

Outstanding work, coach ERT, well done! I’m honestly disgusted at how ridiculous the new ITTF ranking system is. In my humble opinion, ITTF’s volatile and unbalanced decisions hold the potential to mire the popularity of table tennis in the dirt, as well as causing the top players to leave the scene. If that would happen, it would certainly do huge damage to the worldwide table tennis infrastructure. I, for one, would then possibly leave off following any formal competition and event status. If there is to be hope to preserve or improve the quality of the sport’s worldwide network, ITTF… Read more »

Roch-Marie
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Roch-Marie

Superb works and results, Coach ERT ! 🙂 Fully agree with you : the new system is inaccurate and the best player ever is ML, who has stand more than 4 years as world number one, and who would have stand few more months without the new system… Do you think it is possible to export one by one (“manually”) every match of biggest importance (to lower the worktime) ? You could create a rough ranking of the best 20 players, based on the 100 most important matches of the month ? Dont know if it is possible, but would… Read more »

Anonymous
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Anonymous

I think November 2018 1#ma long 2#fan zhendong 3#xu xin
4#liang jingkung 5#lin gaonyauan 6#harimoto tomokazu
7#jun mizutani 8#koki niwa 9#dimitrij ovtaroc
10#timo boll

Anonymous
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Anonymous

I think too

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